Validation of a Regional Distribution Model in Environmental Risk Assessment of Substances

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Titel: Validation of a Regional Distribution Model in Environmental Risk Assessment of Substances
Sonstige Titel: Validierung eines regionalen Ausbreitungsmodells in der Umweltrisikoabschätzung von Substanzen
Autor(en): Berding, Volker
Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Michael Matthies
Zweitgutachter: Prof. Dr. Walter Klöpffer
Zusammenfassung: The aim of this investigation was to determine the applicability and weaknesses of the regional distribution model SimpleBox and to make proposals for improvement. The validation was performed using a scheme of which the main aspects are the division into internal and external validation. With its default values, the regional distribution model represents a generic region, and it is connected with a model which estimates indirect emissions from sewage treatment plants. The examination was carried out using a set of sample substances, the characteristics of which cover a wide range of different physico-chemical properties, use patterns and emissions. These substances were employed in order to enable us to make common statements on the model´s applicability. Altogether, the model complies with its designated purpose to calculate regional background concentrations. A scrutiny of theory did not show serious errors or defects. Regarding sensitivity, it could be shown that the model contains only few parameters with a negligible influence on the results. The comparison with measured results showed a good agreement in many cases. The highest deviations occur if the preliminary estimations of emissions, degradation rates and partition coefficients deliver unrealistic values. Altering the regional default parameters has a lower influence on the modelled results than replacing unrealistic substance properties by better ones. Generally, the model employed is a reasonable compromise between complexity and simplification. For the sewage treatment model, it could be shown that its influence on the predicted concentration is very low and a much simpler model fulfils its purpose in a similar way. It is proposed to improve the model in several ways, e.g. by alternative estimations functions for partition coefficients. But the main focus for future improvements should be on the amelioration of release estimations and substance characteristics.
Schlagworte: Validation; EUSES; SimpleBox; Sensitivity Analysis; Scenario Analysis; European Scenarios
Erscheinungsdatum: 6-Nov-2000
Publikationstyp: Dissertation oder Habilitation [doctoralThesis]
Enthalten in den Sammlungen:FB06 - E-Dissertationen

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